“Markets everywhere follow three stages— innovators, imitators, and swarming incompetents..” Warren Buffet December 22, 2005 in an address to the Harvard Business School.

I love to rant and laugh while others enjoy lamenting and drama. That is just human nature. We all have our styles. One thing is certain, times are changing and so is our market environment. Having witnessed the same rapid decommissioning of established industry leaders in the Manufactured Home industry it will be interesting to see how this upheaval in the car biz plays out.

The Manufactured Home Industry was a HUGE money maker until…. Everybody started doing the same thing while riding the wave without watching the market collapse around them. (Me Included) Then there were none. Long gone is Greentree Financial, Oakwood Homes was gobbled up by Clayton when Berkshire Hathaway entered the industry, long gone are most of the Champion lines, no huge natural disasters in several years and the industry is on the rise again. It is cyclical, changed forever but those who were willing to adapt and get out of the box are still in the game hitting pay dirt in the current housing crunch.

In a recent call with a dear friend of mine we were comparing the that trend and the current going ons in the car business and it looks like we are headed down the same path. Daily we are receiving faxes from lenders where they will not fund certain types of loans. I am sure you have seen the no more V-6 SUVs and V-8 cars proclamations. Daily we hear of dealers in financial straights and the “Old Dogs” wishing for days of old.

Now is the time to decide where we are going to be today, tomorrow and down the road in the future. We need to choose to be an Innovator, an Imitator or just plain Idiots.

The Innovators will be responsible for the new car biz as we pull through our industry downturn. The things the Innovators do now, improve upon and move on from will keep them in the game and inspire the…

The Imitators

They will see the successes the Innovators have and seek to duplicate them after their effectiveness has peaked and they have moved on to more uncharted waters. They will still be trying to capture the magic created by the Innovators, without ever taking a calculated risk. They are happy and comfortable to know that they have never made mistake because somebody else has taken all of the risk.

Which leaves us with the idiots, the dead money in the game. I think they are still lamenting about the days of old and will have moved on to other fields or the grave.

Time will tell, where do you fit in? Are you an Innovator, an Imitator or a discouraged Idiot?

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